John Bercow suggests ‘procedural creativity’ to stop no-deal Brexit as DUP insists it is opposed to deal to make Northern Ireland different from the UK 10.27am BST The odds of a no-deal exit have increased over the last week despite Parliament’s determination to prevent such an outcome, according to the Euroasia group thinktank. So after saying an early election is impossible to predict, that’s exactly what I’m now going to do. That’s job description unfortunately.. Short thread with some initial thoughts 1/ https://t.co/uVkFoKgABF pic.twitter.com/juiONol5MQBut deal can’t be basecase. Time too short. Too many hurdles. I think odds have gone up, just – say from 15 to 20%. Near-term risk of no deal also fallen in light of A50 extension legislation – say from 30 to 20%. That leaves 60% early election. Will it clarify anything? 3/1) Labour minority; 2) Tory minority or 3) deadlock (& probs another election). Each of these also has multiple permutations & complications. For eg even if Labour has fewer MPs than Tories, it may have a better chance of forming a Govt because of its potential partners 5/Bottom line (after much initial work with pollsters + 3000 words of analysis?) Rather than clarify, election could reinforce #Brexit uncertainty. Poss pol outcomes suggest lots options will remain on table: no deal; Canada; CU/amended version of May’s deal; 2nd ref; Remain ENDS 10.14am BST Support for Welsh independence will soar if it meant that Wales could remain in the EU, a poll suggests.According to the YouGov poll commissioned by Plaid Cymru, 41% of those who expressed a preference would back independence if it led to Wales remaining in the EU.“These are sensational figures which put support for Plaid Cymru’s ambition of securing Welsh independence at a historic high.“Westminster is in turmoil. Boris Johnson’s reckless Tory government and Jeremy Corbyn’s chaotic so-called opposition are wrecking Wales’s future.A SENSATIONAL new poll published today reveals support for Welsh independence, if it meant Wales remaining a member of the EU, at a historic high of 41% amongst those who expressed a preference.
Something is happening in Wales.
https://t.co/9btKMgPERV#indyWales pic.twitter.com/CUOY4Jh8SI Continue reading…
Source link : https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/sep/13/brexit-boris-johnson-dup-backstop-john-bercow-eu-yellowhammer-live-news
Author : Matthew Weaver
Publish date : 2019-09-13 09:27:17
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